With dynamic wagers, you are not guided by your starting budget. In the 5 games with more than 2.5 goals, the teams scored 8, 6, 5, 4 and 5 goals. For each €10 bet the expected return is €11 (a profit of €1). Das Ergebnis liegt über 0, der KickForm ValueBets Finder hat eine Value Bet entdeckt. (KickForm probability in percentage x bookmaker’s odds) ÷ 100 = KickForm ValueBet. We scan such events and then calculate value bets online. Value bets give opportunities to make a profit by placing bets systematically on overvalued odds. Do not analyse matches that are too outdated. You do not need an especially rigid Money Management strategy. 3. (55% x 2.0) ÷ 100 = 1.1 As we can see, the result has amounted to more than 1, so we have found a Value Bet. That´s why we want to introduce you this useful football calculator. KickForm hat dieses Verfahren als Grundlage genommen, da es sich als besonders treffsicher herausgestellt hat. Unser Kickform Value Bets Finder ist dein Werkzeug, um im Handumdrehen Value Bets aufzudecken. If, for example, you made losses with your last bets, adjust your next few wagers and use smaller amounts. Dieser wäre gegeben, wenn die ausgegebene Quote über der errechneten Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der ein Ereignis eintritt, liegen würde. Und wir allen wissen auch, dass bestimmte Ereignisse mit einer bestimmten Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten und die Wettanbieter auch anhand von Wahrscheinlichkeiten die Wettquoten ausgeben. However, after analysing each match, it soon becomes clear that this statistic is misleading. For a proficient risk management you should, therefore, keep the following in mind: To use flat wager with dynamic wagers effectively and profit from the advantages of both strategies, you should keep multiple betting accounts. 0 % Away. Wenn wir also beispielsweise eine Fußballwette in der Bundesliga hernehmen und Bayern gegen Wolfsburg spielt, errechnet der Algorithmus des Sportwettenanbieters eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der Bayern gewinnt, eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass das Spiel unentschieden ausgeht und eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der Wolfsburg gewinnt. Uni bet Fußball: 21/04 19:00: Alavés – Villarreal Football / Spain / La Liga: Scored penalty: Ja 2. Toby is the founder & writer of Punter2Pro. The results of direct encounters also let you assess whether you should bet on Over or Under 2.5 goals. Nicht nur Fußballfans tippen gerne sondern viele Freunde und Arbeitskollegen sind in Tipprunden aktiv. User merken meistens auch nichts davon, denn mal ehrlich: Ob Bayern dann eine Quote von 1,3 oder 1,25 hat (nur als Beispiel), ist den meisten am Ende egal. Ordinarily, bookmakers who account for such odds charge a commission which is significantly above the average. Nicht umsonst setzen passionierte Wett-Freunde gerne auf die Strategie der Value Bets. But, as we stated before, there are times where you may want to shy away from bets, even though they offer you value. Value Bets Help: Value bets listed above provide tips on matches that you can bet on with mathematical advantage. Unlike a coin toss, we do not know the precise probability for a given outcome. So, although the average number of goals does appear to be high, you are actually more likely to lose an Over 2.5 Goals bet than win it. Afterwards, divide the result by 100. Heißt also konkret: Wenn ihr Value Wetten für Fußballspiele sucht, begebt euch lieber in unterklassige Ligen wie Regionalliga Wetten in Deutschland oder die dritte englische Liga. Bookmakers will very often offer the classic Over 2.5-goals or Under 2.5-goals selections. Die Buchmacher bieten dir eine Quote von 2,0 an. Wir stellen mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene, wissenschaftlich fundierte Quoten auf und vergleichen diese mit den Quoten der Buchmacher. Mit Value Bets macht ihr ganz selten etwas falsch – das ist klar. To summarise, sports betting with value included in prediction tips should statistically lead to success. Do not solely rely on luck or your gut instinct; be productive and look up as many relevant facts and data for each game as you can. and might, therefore, be less motivated to score goals • How far the season already has progressed, since each phase features a higher or lower “goal probability”. If you include these factors in your analysis, you can gain a lead over many other bettors. This approach helps you minimise the risk of losing money. Je höher die Einschätzung nach oben abweicht, desto besser die Wette. Schließlich möchte jeder gerne die Tipprunde gewinnen und es den Mitspielern… Both alternatives reduce your risk and therefore, the risk of loss. Join the tribe today and you'll gain access to our value bet finder and community which is completely focused on identifying good value bets. Implied Probability. A 4/1 bet is expected to win one in every five attempts, therefore the probability is 20%. The ongoing performance level of a team is often considered to be an important indicator for Over / Under bets by betting rookies. Many bettors begin progressive betting with a small betting amount, since it grows exponentially with each loss. In 7 matches, they actually struck more than 2.5 goals. Dabei gilt: Je höher über 0, desto mehr Value in der Wette. With flexible wagers, your bets are detached from your starting or current betting budget; instead, you base your betting amounts on other criteria. Our prediction shows you furthermore the three most likely results. Bei der Simulation kam im Mittel mehr als eine Verdopplung des Kapitals pro Saison heraus. We will show you the important basics for creating scientific betting strategies, so you know where and how to begin to really get started. If you are a rather patient bettor, this strategy might lead you to success. Many bettors take the factor of risk into account, and decide how much money they want to place depending on how safe they think their bets are. Value Bets. If the odds are high enough, you might as well reduce the increase of said betting amount. Getting odds of 1.9 (53% probability) on a bet which you think has a 70% chance of winning (odds should be 1.43) is better value than placing a bet on odds of 5.0 (20% probability) when the chance of it happening is 21% (odds of 4.77). Aber da in jeder Wahrscheinlichkeit Abweichungen stecken können, sind diese Zahlen eben nicht exakt. American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. Never ignore heavy favourites. Da wir mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene Quoten für Spiele berechnen, entgeht uns fast keine Value Bet. Examining Bayern Munich’s statistics within the same period emphasizes the difference even further: at home they scored more than 2.5 goals in 86% of their matches, but this decreased to 20% during their Away games. The KickForm Algorithm has calculated that Berlin will leave the pitch as winner with a probability of 55%. Prognosis / Trend. If you only consider the average figure of goals scored in a match, outliers in your statistics might lead you to false conclusions. Aside from surebets, positive middles also emerge. Let’s say you win the bet and get 4 Euros in return. Liegt der Wert unter 0, kannst du die Finger von der Wette lassen. Consequently, your wager is 2 Euros. Denn ihr solltet vor allem bei der Vermischung von Kombiwetten und Value Bets aufpassen. Denn ihr beobachtet mit Hilfe verschiedener Tools den Wettmarkt und findet genau diese Wetten, die eurer Einschätzung nach zu hoch bewertet sind. Es liegt keine Value Bet vor. Whilst free value betting software is a … (KickForm probability in percentage x bookmaker’s odds) ÷ 100 = KickForm ValueBet. Die KickForm-Vorhersagen basieren auf einem statistischen Verfahren zur Prognose von Fußballspielen entwickelt von Physik-Professor Andreas Heuer. How the KickForm ValueBets Finder works Our Kickform Value Bets Finder is your tool to uncover value bets in no time. Eventually, you need to decide what type of bettor you are. Falls bei euch noch Fragen offen sind, kein Problem: Die wichtigsten Fragen und Antworten haben wir euch im folgenden FAQ noch einmal zusammengefasst. 0 % Draw. Goals might be the obvious indicator for an Over / Under bet. Wir alle wissen, dass es beim Wetten um Wahrscheinlichkeiten geht. Do the odds for a match seem too high to you? If the result is above 0, you found a Value Bet. Kleine und große Gewinne sind dabei möglich, wenn ihr euch an die Kriterien haltet, die wir euch in diesem Artikel erläutert haben. To avoid this, and to be able to make a better forecast, it is important to evaluate a good number of matches. A high number of scored goals or goal opportunities does not always recur in future matches, as there many different opponent factors (such as attitude and rank within the league) that have a significant impact on the number of goals. Together with our scientifically sound KickForm Formula you can, in this way, create the best possible match forecast. Und immer dann, wenn Menschen arbeiten, können Fehler entstehen. Bet … At a surface glance, this seems to suggest that you should place an Under 2.5 Goals bet and expect to win it. Nur, weil hier eine Quote zu hoch ausfällt, heißt das noch nicht im Umkehrschluss, dass ihr die Wette auch kombinieren solltet und sich diese Value Bet dann lohnen wird. Afterwards, divide the result by 100. If you want to place successful wagers consistently, it is important to do extensive research before each bet. On balance, we made a profit of 5 Euros. Um tatsächlich immer Profit mit dieser Methode zu machen, braucht es eine sehr gute Marktbeobachtung und eine Verteilung seiner Wetteinsätze auf verschiedene Buchmacher, die für einzelnen Eintrittsmöglichkeiten die jeweils besten Quoten anbieten. In the case of matches set to be played by Halle, Kiel or Wiesbaden, it may happen that bookmakers put less effort into calculating these odds, and so are more likely to be wrong – giving you a stellar opportunity to find superb Value Bets. 4) Value Bet. Der KickForm ValueBets Finder wurde extra für euch entwickelt, um euch so einfach wie möglich die besten und lohnendsten Value Bets zu präsentieren. Wir machen uns den Run um diese besten Quoten zu Nutze. Hierbei wettet man auf alle Eintrittsmöglichkeiten bei einem Event, damit am Ende ein Tipp auf jeden Fall richtig ist. Das bedeutet: Wer Value Bets finden möchte, der sollte nicht unbedingt bei den gehypten, großen Sportevents vorbeischauen, sondern nach eher kleinen Events suchen. Their Away situation was completely different: over 2.5 goals were scored in 83% of the matches. And, among the matches with more than 2.5 goals, there was no match where more than 4 goals were scored. If you enjoy taking risks, you should go with dynamic wagers. (65% x 1.80) – 100% = 17% The result amounts to more than 0, so you found a Value Bet. Das ist eure Chance, also haltet nach diesen Boosted Odds Ausschau und hinterfragt bzw. To check whether you found a Value Bet, multiply our calculated KickForm probability in percentage by the bookmaker’s odds. The numbers prove this: Home teams score 1.66 goals on average, while Away teams only reach 1.20 goals on average. Deine eigene Einschätzung oder die Einschätzung von Tools mit dem KickForm ValueBet Finder führen also zu den sogenannten Value Bets, also zu hoch bewerteten Wetten. We issue our own, scientifically sound bets for each Bundesliga match, so that you can directly compare them to bookmakers’ odds. Was wir euch selbstverständlich nicht verheimlichen wollen, ist, dass es beim Ermitteln von Value Bets auch gewisse Schwierigkeiten geben kann. Was wir meistens jedoch nicht können, ist die exakte Prozentzahl zu bestimmen, mit der ein Ereignis eintritt. For your next bet, you place 2% of your current budget, which now amounts to 102 Euros. Free Football Betting Tips WinDrawWin is the best source of free football betting tips and football predictions and betting statistics, football results, football statistics and trends. Hier könnte sich eine Chance auf eine Value Bet verstecken. 4) Include More than Just Goals in your Statistics, 6) Take Circumstances and Dates into Account. Kickform is a german football calculator & translatable in english. Bet on what you know best. Der wichtigste Wert ist daher der „Value“-Wert, der angibt, wie „gut“ die Value Bet ist. Always consider many factors. 1) Take Home and Away Performances into Account. BetCatcher is a value bet finder. You can alternatively utilise your own assessment to detect Value Bets. A professional risk management that enables you to protect your betting capital but doesn’t hinder you from making profits demands a combination of both strategies. In Germany this is one of the most popular betting calculators. 2) Convert odds to probability. Scored goals may carry significance for future results; however, you should work with more indicators for Over / Under bets to define the exact potential of a team. In the chapter “Betting Odds”, we already showed you what Value Bets are. Your budget now amounts to 102 Euros. The best bets, predictions, odds and stats for the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Seria A, Ligue 1, SüperLig of the season 2019/2020. Auf diese Weise erkennen wir automatisch, bei welchen Spielpaarungen sich Value Bets verstecken. In each match that took place in their own stadium, they scored more than 2.5 goals every second match during the first 12 matchdays. READ MORE. Only profitable value bets of the day. You might also bet on other factors, like the number of yellow cards, corners and many more; however, the most common type is betting on goals scored. The following value bet table is sorted by the resulting profit. This effect of raised coefficients realizes another way of making money – using value bets. Goals scored by a team may be a useful value when you assess whether to bet on Over or Under 2.5 goals or not. However, the opposite sometimes does occur, as shown by the example of Borussia Dortmund below (also taken from the season of 2014/15): Example In Dortmund’s Home matches, only in every third game were over 2.5 goals scored. Wir wollen euch den KickForm ValueBets Finder im Folgenden näherbringen. Flat and dynamic wagers are very popular; brave bettors who work with wagers can quickly increase their betting budget with good bets and some luck. You consider a winning probability of 65% to be very likely. It will also almost never help you to listen to your gut instinct or your intuition. The Home or Away record of a team has a considerable indicating value of whether 2.5 goals (so at least 3) or under 2.5 goals (so no more than 2) will be scored. Denn dann werden oft nicht Algorithmen und fehlerfreie Computer eingesetzt, sondern es müssen manuelle Änderungen an der Quote vorgenommen werden. ‎Besser tippen mit der Kickform Fußballformel Tippen ist in. How many goalscoring opportunities does the opponent need on average to score a goal against said team? Value = 0.05; So betting on the coin to land on heads at odds of 2.10 is a value bet. Again, theoretically speaking, betting all bets where you find value is a long-term positive expected value play. Das alles erfahrt ihr im nächsten Absatz. Nur wenn die Wette also einen Value aufweist, solltest du dein Geld darauf setzen. Natürlich gibt es aber auch Value Bets bei großen Sportereignissen Es gibt allerdings eine Möglichkeit, noch schneller und vor allem ohne den Aufwand, ganze Sportwetten-Seiten zu durchforsten, Value Bets zu finden. Tips to find value bets of the day. Diese Wahrscheinlichkeit wird durch Algorithmen auf Basis verschiedener Faktoren kalkuliert. 4) Include More Than Just Goals in Your Statistics. Der VfL Wolfsburg trifft auf die Hertha aus Berlin. Here are ten tips to be able to successfully extract positive value from your bets: 1. Probability for win, draw and loss: 0 % Home. BetCatcher scans up to fifty online sportsbooks in real-time in order to provide you with value bets or sure bets. Instead, you can switch between flat and dynamic wagers (within an account). Ein weiter Punkt ist natürlich der Faktor Zufall. Auf diese Weise erkenneen wir automatisch, bei welchen Spielpaarungen sich Value Bets verstecken. Der KickForm-Algorithmus hat berechnet, dass Berlin mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 55 Prozent als Sieger vom Platz geht. At the same time, it will take a while until the budget increases. In this case, you don’t double your betting amount after a lost bet, but increase it only by 25% or 50%. Oder anders formuliert: Dem Ermitteln von Value Bets ist ein nicht unerheblicher Anteil subjektiver Ansicht inhärent. Unser Kickform Value Bets Finder ist dein Werkzeug, um im Handumdrehen Value Bets aufzudecken. Wo sind sie versteckt? Oft sind es nur ganz kleine Beiträge und man braucht relativ hohe Einsätze, damit es sich lohnt, aber wer Geduld und das nötige Kleingeld hat, der ist bei dieser Methode gut aufgehoben. You should put money on this match. Eine Quote ist nichts anderes als eine Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der ein bestimmtes Ereignis eintritt. Don’t just take one or two encounters between the two teams into account; analyse at least 3 games. Unser KickForm ValueBets Finder findet automatisch wissenschaftlich fundierte Value Bets für dich. So, if you, for example, are quite familiar with the third Liga, use it to your advantage. Statistically, however, goals are often volatile, and therefore do not serve as a strong enough indicator to make safe predictions for your bets. Um der Frage auf die Spur zu kommen, wie Value Bets entstehen, schauen wir uns zunächst einmal an, wie Wettquoten überhaupt entstehen. This is mainly because bookmakers calculate their odds for the world’s top leagues very thoroughly and in detail. How to calculate a value bet. Dieser sollte auch bei Value Bets niemals außer Acht gelassen werden. Read on to find answers to these questions below. Nowadays he runs Amazon FBA businesses, writes several blogs, and specialises in online marketing. Among these 12 matches, there were 7 matches with less than 2.5 goals (and only 5 with more than 2.5 goals). The built-in bet tracker in ValueBetting is the where you keep track of your logged value bets, your profit and a number of statistics. 1) Make a selection. However, if you have found odds that seem implausible or unlikely, check their value and the bookmaker’s commission. Especially important when betting is taking the right approach to Over/Under bets, the detection of Value Bets and a proficient risk management strategy. Wir stellen mit unserer KickForm Fußballformel eigene, wissenschaftlich fundierte Quoten auf und vergleichen diese mit den Quoten der Buchmacher. Auch bringt es dich selten weiter, auf dein Gefühl oder deine Intuition zu hören, wenn du eine Wette platzierst. Our value bets are calculated from bookmaker's market difference in comparison to its competing companies. For these type of bets, you need enough betting capital and a high risk disposition. Wenn auch in diesem Beispiel nur eine „kleine“ Value Bet, die Werte können in anderen Fällen natürlich noch höher gehen. Conclusion: When carrying out an Over/Under goal analysis before placing your bet, you should refrain from mean values and instead include frequency in your calculations. In simpler terms, betting any value bet will make you money over time. The bookmaker then controls your planned wagers and protects you from suffering overly large losses. Value. An example from the season of 2014/15 serves to underline this important point: Example After 12 matchdays, games played by VfB Stuttgart, which amounted to an average of 3.33 goals per match, seemed to offer safe bets for over 2.5 goals to be scored. Yes, the return on the higher odds is greater, but doesn’t necessarily represent the better value. Keep in mind any shots on goal and opportunities allowed. Arbitrage betting – Like Value betting, there is a formula, which is Arbitrage % = ( (1 / decimal odds for outcome A) x 100) + ( (1 / decimal odds for outcome B) x 100). If the result is more than 1, you have found a Value Bet. The most common formula is the following: Value= (Probability*Decimal Odds)-1. Conclusion: An exclusive review of the total goals of the season can mislead your assessment. Our tipsters continuously find value bets in the major European Football Leagues. Dabei geht in der Regel mehr um Ruhm und Ehre, als um Geld. If the result amounts to less than 0 and, therefore, is negative, you should avoid placing this bet. Denn wenn ihr Quoten findet, die über den errechneten Wahrscheinlichkeiten für das Eintreten eines Events liegt, dann habt ihr einen strategischen Vorteil. If you have recently lost a bet, double your wager for the next bet. Und gleichzeitig auch die Gefahr, selbst bei sicher geglaubten Wetten zu verlieren. This way, surebets appear, which are one of the most efficient ways of betting, able to give stable and solid income to a gambler, in case of proper usage ($1000 a week are ordinary for surebet gamblers ). Value Bets sind von Sportwettenanbietern natürlich eher nicht gewollt – sie entstehen häufig, weil Events als nicht besonders relevant eingestuft werden. If the result under 1, it is not a Value Bet. Therefore, in the long run, flat wagers are suited for more cautious bettors who want to play it safe. However, it can only take a few lost bets until the bettor has lost all their money. Und da seid ihr als Kunden dann in der Pole Position. Such odds may only rarely be found for Over/Under bets on 2.5 goals, but they can be found for more exotic bets such as Over/Under 4.5 goals. Value Bets are bets that are overrated by the betting provider and therefore have too much odds. Eine der Grundregeln für jede erfolgreiche Sportwette lautet: Finde Value Bets! Many teams play better in front of their own crowd and gain more points than in Away matches. Over/Under bets are some of the most popular betting selections - here you bet on whether more or fewer goals than a certain figure are scored during a match. The Bayern example in particular shows how "hungry" for goals a team can be at home. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. Kickform offers a football formula for the prognosis of football matches, prediction scores for various outcomes and also a value bet finder. Rechnet man hier richtig, macht man auf jeden Fall Profit mit der Sure Bet. Example (Your probability in percentage x bookmaker’s odd) ÷ 100 = Value (65% x 2.0) ÷ 100 = 1.3 The result is above 1, so this is a Value Bet. Always ask yourself: in how many matches played by team X were more than (and less than) 2.5 goals scored? Play with dynamic wagers until you fall under your starting budget and then play with flat wagers to break your free fall. Example: 1. Kurz zusammengefasst: Bookies wollen vermeiden, dass einzelne Wetten einen Mehrwert (Value) für den Kunden haben. You may also multiply your own probability by the bookmaker’s decimal quota, and then subtract 100% from the result. Ihr seht dadurch dann auch auf den ersten Blick, in welchen Spielpaarungen sich echte Value Bets verstecken. The winning rate of kickform is quite good. Therefore, you have to take the statistics of Home and Away matches into account for Over/Under bets. This is a value bet. This way, you will immediately recognise which fixtures contain Value Bets. Both consequently turn out higher than in the case of flat wagers. Bei niedrigklassigen Events ist das manchmal nicht der Fall. Odds Conversion Table 6) Take Circumstances and Date into Account. In Away games, however, only in every third match were over 2.5 goals scored. Viele Buchmacher haben eine Achillesferse, wenn es um Value Bets geht. You might be able discover attractive bets with the help of research and our KickForm ValueBets Finder; however, the final result of the match and whether you win your bet depends on many other factors, as well as chance. 4. However, if you take a closer look at each of Mainz’s matches, you will find that less than 2.5 goals were scored only in 5 of their matches. That way, your set betting amount doesn’t stay the same but (ideally) increases over time. Unsere Beispielrechnung, anhand derer ihr einen guten Eindruck von den Value Bets bekommen solltet, hilft euch, das Prinzip noch besser zu verstehen. The start of every betting strategy presents the challenge of detecting Value Bets from variety of bets on the market - they form the basis to steadily generate profit. There’s no clear answer to this. If you are punter who does not have the time to look at form, using the Proform Bet, Lay & Trade Finder (B L T for short) you can find selections in a matter of seconds.. Diese sind vor allem statistischer Natur. To get closer to an optimal football bet, it is not enough to use the tendencies of the most recent matches as a basis for your bet. überprüft die hier angegebenen Quoten. Pay special attention to: • How both teams acted in similar situations  • How previous games ended when one team was considered an underdog • Whether a prolific striker or an important defender will miss the match (due to illness, injury or ban) • Whether one of the teams has already reached its goals for the season (champion, retained their ranking, etc.) If you have won a bet, stick to your last wager. Here, just as before, simply reviewing the individual matches can explain the supposed contradiction: among the matches with under 2.5 goals, 3 were draws without any goals scored. He's a Computer Science graduate with experience in developing value bet finders, Betfair bots, and other professional betting tools. There are always clashes that are out of the ordinary and that represent outliers in the statistics. Natürlich funktioniert er am besten in Zeiten, in denen es viele verschiedene Sportevents gibt und viele Ligen und Turniere gleichzeitig stattfinden. We stream over 100,000 events. The best bets, predictions, odds and stats for the Premiere League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Seria A, Ligue 1, SüperLig of the season / With the help of the scientifically sound KickForm prediction you can better bet on the match of Mainz against Schalke.
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